The latest public numbers allow us to draw a first review of the 2023 PV market trends in Germany. As it became clear toward the end of Q3-2023, Germany surpassed its target of 9 GW newly installed PV capacity in 2023. By adding ~3.6 GWdc in Q4-2023 alone, Germany managed to install a total of 14.3 GWdc in the past year.
Bonn, 25 January 2024. When looking at the different segments, the residential (up to 10 kW capacity) and commercial (10 to 500 kW) segments experienced the biggest growth compared to 2022, with a year-over-year growth of 131% and 145% in installed capacity respectively. The industrial and utility segment (systems with over 500 kW capacity) grew by a lower 41%, but still accounts for more than 5 GW of the newly installed capacity.
The dynamic is even more pronounced when it comes to the number of added units: the large majority of newly installed PV systems falls into the residential sector (71% of the around one million units installed in 2023). However, it should be noted that this figure includes a high number of low-capacity balcony PV power plants.
In terms of monthly installed capacity, October and November were in line and even slightly above the monthly growth average (~1.2 GW), with October reaching the second highest figure in the year with around 1.4 GW of added capacity. December marked a sharp decline mainly due to the fact that compared to the previous months, fewer ground-mount PV tenders have been materialized; also, these figures will most probably change for the better as more registrations will be reported in the market master data register of the Bundesnetzagentur.
Despite the slight slowdown in Q4, EUPD Research expects the growth trend of the past years to continue in 2024, mainly thanks to the further presence of a favorable regulatory framework: above all, the Solar Package 1, adopted in August 2023, which aims to simplify the bureaucratic procedures to particularly benefit balcony PV and systems of 100 kW or higher capacity, and more favorable conditions for tenders for ground-mounted and dual-use systems (especially the agrivoltaic).
Germany has already surpassed its 2024 target of 13 GW of new PV installations in 2023, and against the background of the overall healthy 2023 pulses in the German PV industry, the German PV market is expected to reach or come close to a triple-digit cumulative PV capacity of ~100 GWdc toward the end of 2024, with an additional 17.5 GWdc (EUPD forecast).
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Since 2000, EUPD Research has been developing innovative and integrated solutions for companies focusing on sustainability. EUPD Research is active in national and international markets and focuses on the four pillars of the energy transition: Electricity, Heat, Mobility and Energy Efficiency. The company’s primarily data-based market research and consulting services are designed to make its clients’ business strategies a success, create added value and strengthen their market positioning.
