According to the most recent EUPD Research prognosis, a record amount of 800 MWp of small-sized PV systems up to 10 kWp is expected for the year 2020, following an installed capacity of 427 MWp in the first half of 2020. Decreasing PV system prices and rising electricity costs make self-consumption solutions increasingly attractive. EUPD Research’s EndCustomer Monitor 10.0 reveals: More PV system owners are seeking to optimize self-consumption and are planning to purchase electric vehicles and electricity-based heatings.
Bonn. In line with the overall market development, Germany has witnessed a steady growth of new, small-sized photovoltaic (PV) installations since 2015. Following record levels in the first six months of 2020, EUPD Research forecasts a further market growth for the second half of 2020, based on a recent analysis. In total, the Bonn-based market and economic researcher expects 108,000 small-sized PV systems under 10 kW in 2020, which will amount to an installed capacity of 801 MWp. This will result in year’s new installations in this segment surpassing the previous record year 2011 with 760 MWp.
An in-depth analysis of the installation figures of the first half of the year shows an above-average year-on-year growth in the segment of small-sized PV systems (7-10 kWp) of 153%. This confirms the long-term trend in the small-sized system segment with increasingly larger solar systems. While in 2019 the average size of PV systems under 10 kWp was 7.35 kWp, the systems installed in the first half of the year 2020 were 7.48 kWp on average.
The photovoltaic market as a driver for residential, ecological transformation of transport and heat
For the 10th time EUPD Research will publish the EndCustomer Monitor – a study in which PV system owners and those planning to invest in a solar system were surveyed. In the context of decreasing feed-in tariffs and rising electricity costs, the strongly increased importance of self-consumption with respect to solar electricity makes up a central theme of the research series. Accordingly, the latest analysis shows that owners of newer PV installations actively take action to increase self-consumption of produced solar electricity from their own PV plant.
The graph illustrates how relevant an increase of the photovoltaic capacity is for the ecological transition of transport and heat in residential households by means of high rates of self-consumption of the produced solar electricity. In 2020, the majority of owners of new PV systems – 82% – align the usage of household appliances with the availability of solar electricity. While it does not necessarily require larger investments, 41% count on battery storage solutions to increase their self-consumption rates. More than one quarter of the PV buyers in 2020 already own, or are planning to purchase an electric car. The additional electricity consumption of electric vehicles of about 2,500-4,000 kWh increase self-consumption significantly and pays off for the wallet at the same time. The most recent electricity price for residential households of about 31 Euro cent per kWh compares with the electricity generation costs of less than 10 Euro cents for a new solar installation. About one fifth of the PV system owners in 2020 focus on smart home applications and the purchase of heat pumps for electricity-based heatings in order to maximize self-consumption.
In its 10th edition of the EndCustomer Monitor, EUPD Research analyzes the purchase behavior of PV system owners and those planning to invest in solar PV, as well as the latest trends. Topics such as market awareness, brand choice, recommendation of PV modules, inverters and battery storage are once again key components of the study. This year, the study focuses on electric mobility and battery storage. The report will be published at the end of August and an early bird price is available until August 14, 2020.
Please find further information about the study here.